Bonus — Critical Role Animated Series Kickstarter

Hey everyone! For those who don’t know, Critical Role (a weekly D&D livestream) is hosting a Kickstarter project to fund an animated special of their D&D game. It’s already way, way overfunded, but just for the fun of it I did some number crunching for the projections of how much money the project is likely to end up with. Here’s the post:

I like numbers and stats, so I did some number crunching for the projections for the Kickstarter project. As I’m writing this, we’re nearing $6,000,000 raised. Having recently overtaken MST3K for the 15th most funded Kickstarter projects (and the #1 film project).

But with over 40 days left to go, we still have lots of time to chug along for new goals and new records… We just got our new target of $7,500,000, and the last goal will probably be close to 9 or 10 million at this rate… So where are we headed? Well, here is the current Top 10 most funded projects, a list Vox Machina is soon to terrorize.

(TL;DR at the bottom if numbers scare you)

Most Funded Kickstarters of All Time:

  1. Pebble Time — $20,340,000

  2. Coolest Cooler — $ 13,290,000

  3. Pebble 2 — $12,780,000

  4. Kingdom Death: Monster — $12,390,000

  5. Pebble E-Paper Watch — $10,270,000

  6. Travel Jacket — $9,190,000

  7. Exploding Kittens — $8,780,000

  8. OUYA — $8,600,000

  9. 7th Continent — $7,070,000

  10. Everyday Backpack — $6,570,000

Even if we made the next stretch goal and nothing else, we’d still already hit #9, and the Kickstarter would have raised 10x the original goal.

But I know what you’re thinking… There’s no way we’re getting anywhere near the top of that list, right? Surely we’ll run out of steam soon. Well… yeah, we’re going to slow down… but with how much time we still have left, even smaller numbers will have lots of impact.

So let’s do some projections, shall we?

08:27 PST: $5,892,000 Funded

Day 1: $3,550,000

Day 2: $1,180,000

Day 3: $920,000

Average Pledge Per Backer: $137

Right now we’re averaging $1,470,000 per day. Now, if you know anything about Kickstarter, you know that that number is not going to hold firm. Most of the funding usually happens on Day 1 and slows down drastically after that. But (just for fun,) if we did maintain that momentum… we’d end up with over $65,000,000. Almost enough to buy the next 5 most funded projects. That’s also enough to outweigh the GDP of some countries.

But that’s stupid, ain’t no way we’re going to hold those numbers. So let’s start with some healthy optimism. At $500,000 per day, we’ll end up with $26,700,000. Which would be most funded by a considerable margin. $500,000 per day is a lot, to be sure, but it’s also just over half of the worst day so far, and to compare, we’ve already raised over $200,000 on Day 4, and it’s only been roughly 9 hours.

If we instead hit a target of $350,000 per day, we’ll end up with $20,400,000… which would still be the most funded Kickstarter, but only barely. I’d say this number is the most likely here. Looking at charts from previous Kickstarters, that seems to be a good number. In my not-so-professional opinion, I’d say that’s doable, even with no more pledges over $750.

Also, we’ve had ~14,000 people pledge every day, at an average of $137. The pledge average will start to go down a bit because there’s no more super expensive ones, but even so…

If 1,460 people pledge the current average of $137 (barely 1/10th of our current daily average of backers), we’ll hit $200,000 per day. At that rate, the project will end up with $14,100,000. We’re not #1 anymore, but we do sit at #2 pretty comfortably.

But even if we only get half those numbers… At $100,000 a day for 42 more days, we’re still left with $9,930,000. Not quite #5 on the charts, but pretty good nonetheless.

Also, let’s not forget… the cast hasn’t even advertised the live Kickstarter on the show yet… We’ll undoubtedly get a little bit of a boost from that (though my guess is that it’ll be pretty minuscule with the numbers we already have.)

Edit: Alternatively, if we base these numbers off rate decay rather than a daily average, extending the 77% decay from Day 2 to Day 3 would total $8,730,000. (According to u/ChanceTheKnight). It’s very safe to say the KS will get at least that much.

TL;DR:

The Legend of Vox Machina is on track to hit Top 5 Most Funded… pretty easily, too. Meaning a full Briarwood Arc is looking pretty good. $7.5 Mil target will probably be hit tomorrow.

Here’s how much money the project will end up with at the following rates.

At $500,000 per day: $26,700,000 (#1 Most Funded)

At $350,000 per day: $20,400,000+ (STILL #1 Most Funded, and also my guess for roughest final estimate)

At $200,000 per day: $14,100,000+ (#2 Most Funded)

At $100,000 per day: $9,930,000+ (#6 Most Funded)

With 77% decay: $8,700,000 (#8 Most Funded)

(Source: Kicktraq. Neat tool for number crunchers like me.)

D&D — The Moments You Play For

In the Aleor campaign I’ve been running the past couple of months, things have been pretty slow. Not to say that stuff has been boring or uninteresting, just that the game started off small, and has been taking it’s time getting anywhere—by design.

Before Session Zero, I referred to this game as the “Commoner Campaign”, based off a .pdf I found outlining a level zero type character class. (A link for the curious.) All the players started out as being pitifully weak, in their hometown of about 200 people, you get the idea. I had to be careful with designing encounters because fighting 3 kobolds simultaneously could be very dangerous and kill them if they weren’t cautious.

It took them 6 sessions to become actual adventurers, and roughly half of that time was spent being lost in a huge forest, so things have been tough. I had a lot of trouble designing interesting encounters day after day when the party was in the same forest on a week to week basis, and anything scarier than a simple boar would make combat risky.

But I think it was worth it, because at the end of our most recent session, the party reached their first proper city. I set a very specific song to accompany my description as I outlined the view of a civilization beyond what the characters could even comprehend. The gentle slope of the city nestled in the banks of a vast lake allowed for a breathtaking view of the city of humans and elves. Rows upon rows of houses, many taller than they had ever seen before, stretching out for about a mile. Dozens of people bustled about the streets, even as the sun was starting to set, with kids running up and down and bumping into one of the players as he chased after his friend.

I can’t properly explain why, but of the 7 3-hour sessions we’ve had, that moment was the most fun I’ve had DM’ing this campaign so far. It’s silly to say, but maybe it’s because that’s the moment where I’ve felt more like Matt Mercer than ever before, or maybe I like the feeling of swinging the doors open and saying “Surprise!”, or maybe it’s the writer in me that likes describing cool scenes.

I think that as a player, the moments I live for are huge, plot changing moments that occur because of something I did—a choice I made or an action I took that had a huge impact on the world. When you’re the DM, all of your choices impact the world, so it’s not as big of a deal, which means it’s harder to pinpoint what exactly I’m trying to accomplish.

Either way, I have a city to build now, and I didn’t realize until after I described it that I’ve never made a map (or fully built) a settlement to this scale before. Craydon is a proper city of (my pre-build estimates) ~20,000 people, making it a sizable monument in a fantasy world; not enormous by any means, but a city to be sure.

It’s going to be some time before I have another one of those moments. I’m going to try my best not to wait until they get to the next big city and make the reveal be the same style of thing, and to be honest, I have no idea if my players had as much fun arriving at Craydon as I did, but hey, a dungeon master should allow themselves to have fun, too.